Money matters the most, so it’s important to get updated our self to the current economic scenarios related to the Rupee and its possible impact on our day to day life, here I have written a brief report on current stance of Rupee and its repercussions on the economy.
In the recent times there have been many news bulletins, reports, debates and parliament arguments regarding the depreciation pressure on Sri lanka rupees over semi strong US dollar ever since president announced the devaluation of the rupee by 3% against US dollar during his budget 2012 speech by November 2011, there were talks that he has not discussed with Central Bank governing body of Monetary Board of Sri lanka, regarding the devaluation of currency and it has purely made at sole responsibility under President as his capacity of minister of finance, but the trueness of which is still questionable, and also we have seen the dispute between the governor of central bank and the secretary of finance over the free floatation of the currency after Central Bank being involved in exchange market and defended the Rupee at 113 level continuously for 51 sessions by selling nearly $ 2.6 Billion of Dollars to carve the demand, which is one third of the foreign reserve and have put trade of balance accounts under risk lower level ( the adequate level of reserves should support six months imports ).
Secretary of finance in the view of free and clear floatation where as Central Bank more into intervene floatation in order to safe guards import costs and possible demand side inflation, although it said to be inflation rate under control with annual average rate with 6.7% and year on year inflation rate is 4.9% by December 2011, the intervene of the CB on floatation also came under fire by the IMF officials they are yet to pour last tranche of $800 million of $ 2.4 Billion loan under standby agreement with the government, they preferred exchange rate to be free floated and allow the market to determine the value for the rupee rather being defending it, CB responds to that with if they get the remaining tranche of the loan then they might have to be servicing relatively higher interest rate and at the current situation country is not in any urgency to get that loan, this statement by the Governor to Reuters criticized by the UNP economist Mr.Harsha stating that there are not such conditions outlined in the agreement of paying higher interest rates and Sri lanka currently getting financial aids from China which will put country at huge risk so prefer the IMF’s loan which is more regulated and transparent.
After all dramas and interviews finally CB has decided to free float the currency by last Friday (3rd of February ) allowing it to depreciate further 30 cents and by Monday again by further 30 cents, but said it will sell some of its reserves if there is any huge demands for the Dollars ( Said to be Quantity intervention), it’s worth to note that interest rate has been increased by 50 basis point by CB to curb the liquid poured into the market, which of course will slow down the consumer spending and hinder the GDP growth percentage, already the rate is lower than the expected Growth, CB stating middle east tensions, sanction over Iran by America, and unprecedented weather prevailing in the European economy as the reasons for the slowdown in the growth, the Stock market is the reflection mirror of Sri lankan economy, at the present context which is losing in the value for 10 straight sessions now and nearing the all important 5,000 points supporting level, but the foreign nationals are vigilantly cherry picking some premier stocks such as JKH, Combank, CTC etc even in this bearish market. Incidentally Sri lankan market is worst performing amongst the Asian countries after being topped the card in 2009, 2010 and placed at 10 in 2011.
It’s interesting to see how the Rupee will fare against the US dollars given depreciation pressure, mounting imports and panic amongst forex traders, Analysts foresee it will stable between 118 to 120 mark but not sure about how CB reacts to this condition since which will spark inflationary pressure in the country and also will have negative impact on its GDP growth rate, also Government officials said they are still into the IMF’s remaining loan and may be because of that CB would have allowed for free floatation of the currency.